National science writers 2012 election

How Obama’s Team Used Big Data to Rally Voters

The first Obama campaign used the findings of such tests to tweak call scripts and canvassing protocols, but it never fully embraced the experimental revolution itself. The traditional way of doing this had been to audition themes and language in focus groups and then test the winning material in polls to see which categories of voters responded positively to each approach.

University Of Chicago Press, The Obama campaign embedded social scientists from the Analyst Institute among its staff. Cambridge University Press, Wagner sorted them by microtargeting projections and found that 58, had individual support scores over Supplementary Readings Valentino, Nicholas A.

Perhaps more than anyone else at headquarters, he appreciated the human aspect of politics. By September, she had unlocked an even richer trove of data: But they were advertising there.

A Theory of U. How much money did that ad campaign bring in? This innovation was most valued in the field. He turned to vector autoregression models, which equities traders use to isolate the influence of single variables on market movements.

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Sending volunteers to persuade voters would mean forcing them to interact with opponents, or with voters who were undecided because they were alienated from politics on delicate issues like abortion.

Gelman, Andrew, Boris Shor, et al. Dynamics of the Party System: That test, and others that followed, demonstrated the limitations of traditional targeting. Within the campaign, however, the Obama data operations were understood to have shortcomings. But the occasional national buy also had other benefits.

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House Members in their Constituencies: Throughout the primaries, Romney had appeared to be the only Republican running a 21st-century campaign, methodically banking early votes in states like Florida and Ohio before his disorganized opponents could establish operations there.

Simas, who had served in the White House before joining the team, marveled at the intimacy of the campaign. Likely Obama supporters would get regular reminders from their local field organizers, asking them to return their ballots, and, once they had, a message thanking them and proposing other ways to be involved in the campaign.

Party officials knew that adding new Democratic voters to the registration rolls was a crucial element in their strategy for Months later, pollsters projected that Martha Coakley was certain to win another special election, to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left empty by the death of Ted Kennedy.

Their instructions were to produce another post-mortem report summing up the lessons of the past year and a half. When the group sent direct mail in favor of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, it barely budged those whose scores placed them in the middle of the partisan spectrum; it had a far greater impact upon those who had been profiled as soft or nonideological Republicans.

Supplementary Readings Vavreck, Lynn. Returns to Office in Postwar British Politics. The University of Wisconsin Press, MacKuen, and James A. Yale University Press, But when it came to buying media, such calculations had been simply impossible, because campaigns were unable to link what they knew about voters to what cable providers knew about their customers.


Inthe Democratic National Committee failed its first test of the Obama era: The results were surprising. The numbers settled almost exactly where Wagner had said they would: He had counted votes one by one. Any insights were distorted by the artificial settings and by the tiny samples of demographic subgroups in traditional polls.NASW discussions The National Association of Science Writers hosts the following email-based public discussion lists.

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List of political scientists. Jump to navigation Jump to search. This Mark Bevir – professor of political science and Director of the Center for British Studies at the University of California, Paul Y.

Hammond – American foreign policy and national security specialist at University of Pittsburgh and elsewhere.

National science writers 2012 election
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